victorybull

Author: victorybull

  • Investment via P-notes drop to Rs 94,826 crore in November

    Investments in Indian capital market through participatory notes (P-notes) dropped to Rs 94,826 crore till November-end after hitting 43-month high in the preceding month.

    P-notes are issued by registered foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be a part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly. They, however, need to go through a due diligence process.

    According to Securities and Exchange Board of India data, the value of P-note investments in Indian markets — equity, debt and hybrid securities — was at Rs 94,826 crore by November end as compared to Rs 1,02,553 crore by October end.

    The month of October saw the highest level since March 2018, when P-notes had invested to the tune of Rs 1,06,403 crore. Abhay Agarwal, Founder and Fund Manager, Piper Serica, a Sebi-registered PMS, said there was a net sale of more than Rs 8,000 crore in November in the equity segment by P-note holders reversing the October inflow of more than Rs 5,000 crore.

    This is consistent with the FPI sales that have been seen in the current quarter to lock-in their gains for the year. “We expect to see a negative number in the month of December also. There was a marginal net inflow in the debt segment, but the number is too small to read much into,” he added.

    At the end of September this year, the investment level was at 97,751 crore, Rs 97,744 crore by August-end. The figure for July was revised to Rs 85,799 crore from Rs 1,01,798 crore posted earlier.

    Prior to that, investment level was at Rs 92,261 crore by June-end, Rs 89,743 crore by May-end, Rs 88,447 crore at April-end and Rs 89,100 crore by March-end.

    Of the total Rs 94,826 crore invested through the route till November, Rs 84,915 crore was invested in equities, Rs 9,605 crore in debt, Rs 306 crore in hybrid securities.

    P-notes flows have been volatile over the last four months in line with the volatility of the global and Indian markets. Divam Sharma, Co-founder, Green Portfolio, a Sebi-registered PMS, said that November 2021 has witnessed slight change in course of FPI inflows and this negative trajectory has also continued in the month of December 2021.

    The key reasons for FPI withdrawal from equity markets include expectations of monetary tightening by federal banks, high inflation levels, uncertainty around Omicron variant spread, and higher valuation levels in equity markets, he said.

    “This is also considering that most FPI’s go on year-end holidays for 2-4 weeks and had lightened positions before their vacations. This is a global trend as emerging markets across the globe along with developed markets have witnessed selling in November and December,” he added.

    The assets under the custody of FPIs declined to Rs 52.24 lakh crore in November-end from Rs 53.6 lakh crore in October-end. Piper Serica’s Agarwal expect the net flows to be anemic in the near future till FPIs start deploying their 2022 allocations.

    There are no big IPOs slated in the near term so the primary market inflows from P-note holders will be weak. Piper Serica’s Agarwal expect the net flows to be anemic in the near future till FPIs start deploying their 2022 allocations.”At the same time, market valuations have become quite reasonable after the recent correction. If the Omicron cases do not lead to national level lock downs and CPI inflation does not cross 6 per cent we expect the flows to be positive in the next quarter,” he added.

  • Beat the market in 2022 with focused investment in three sectors

    Unprecedented retail participation and cheap money have come together to push most markets to record highs in 2021. The strength of the mother market, the US, is imparting resilience to other developed markets and emerging markets like India. The exuberant retail participation is a totally new development that has made market prediction extremely complex.

    A couple of data points that throw light on the unprecedented retail exuberance and its impact on markets would help us to get the issue in perspective. In 2021 alone, US investors have downloaded 15 million trading apps and invested $1 trillion in equity. This investment is higher than the cumulative investment made during the last 20 years. Retail investors in the US now own 12 times more stocks than hedge funds. Cheap money has provided a favorable context for investing/ trading in stocks .

    This explosion in retail participation is a global phenomenon triggered by the pandemic. In emerging markets, this trend is conspicuous in India. Retail participation is desirable but the concern is about exuberance and total disregard for valuations.

    An important lesson from stock market history is that a sharp crash is followed, more often than not, by a sharp rebound. Stock market often overreacts: both on the upside and the downside. During the euphoria of a bull market, valuations reach unsustainable levels, leading to a sharp correction. The panic during a crash takes valuation to very low levels, which in turn leads to buying, triggering recovery. This pattern repeats. This has implications for investors.

  • How Indians invested in crypto in 2021?

    The year 2021 will be remembered as the time when the crypto market came of age. From being a retail investor-heavy segment, the industry saw widespread adoption from major corporates such as Tesla, PayPal and MicroStrategy.

    As per experts, meme coins, central bank digital currency, metaverse, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) were the four major trends of 2021.

    Hitesh Malviya, founder, itsblockchain.com, a blockchain and cryptocurrency publication believes, 2021 will be remembered as a year of mainstream cryptocurrency adoption. “In this year, India added more than 90% of its current retail investor size. Meme coins dominated the first half of the year when dogecoin pulled off a massive price rally. Shiba Inu and some other meme coins also followed the lead of dogecoin in the latter half of the year,” said Malviya.

    As per Indian crypto exchanges such as CoinDCX, BuyUcoin and WazirX, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Shiba Inu, Dogecoin, WazirX Token, Matic, Ripple, Cardano and Solana were among the most-traded crypto coins during the year.

    However, the majority of the trading volume was dominated by top coins. As per WazirX’s analysis of its database, Bitcoin was the most traded crypto on its platform in 2021. Interestingly, on WazirX, women traded more in Bitcoin, whereas men traded more in Shiba Inu.

    Further, an analysis of investment patterns by BuyUcoin revealed that of every ₹100 invested on its platform, ₹50 went into Bitcoin, ₹35 in Ethereum, ₹10 going to Shiba Inu or Dogecoin, and rest among other coins. Interestingly, the most held crypto coin on BuyUcoin was Ethereum with an average investment above ₹40,000.

    Sumit Gupta, chief executive officer and co-founder of CoinDCX believes that Indian users have always believed in less risky investment options. “The same is reflected in their crypto investments. Domestic investors mostly invest in major tokens such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have the largest share in the market cap. Some other altcoins such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu also attracted Indian investors on different occasions,” said Gupta.

    Cryptocurrencies have seen an exponential increase in interest ever since a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ban was lifted in March 2020, with Indian exchanges clocking impressive user additions and a sustained surge in daily trading volumes.

    As per a survey conducted by the exchange, 51% of the respondents admitted to entering crypto basis recommendations from friends and family first. The platform had sent out the survey to 8.5 million of WazirX users, out of which 1% users responded.

    The survey also revealed that 44% of the respondents had up to 10% of their overall investment portfolio in crypto.

    Apart from the word of mouth, the pull of astronomical returns couldn’t be ruled out as a possible factor behind the widespread adoption of crypto assets.

    As per data available with CoinGecko, a digital currency price and information data platform, on a year-to-date basis, Bitcoin is up 68% and Ethereum is 441%, while on the other hand Dogecoin has surged 3,596% and Shiba Inu 4,39,49,900%.

    On BuyUcoin, long-term investors who started buying crypto between 2020 and 2021 are sitting on massive gains. “However, the average gain on liquidated portfolio remains to be in the range of 45-55% for investors with quarterly holding periods and 15-25% for monthly holders and recent investors,” said Shivam Thakral, CEO, BuyUcoin.

    In terms of demographics, as per CoinDCX, the younger age group (between 18-30 years of age) tends to mostly look for short-term trading/investing opportunities ranging between a week to a month max. However, that trend is restricted to some meme coins only.

  • Stocks to Watch: HP Adhesives, RBL Bank, Adani Trans, HUL, Lupin, CBI

    The key benchmark indices are likely to start trade on a quiet note owing to lack of any major directional cues from the overseas market. As of 08:00 AM, the SGX Nifty futures were quoted at 17040, up 14 points. Meanwhile, here the top stocks to focus in trade today.

    HP Adhesives: The stock will make its debut on the bourses today. The IPO was subscribed 20.96. The GMP (Grey Market Premium) indicates a likely listing gain of 20-25 per cent as against the issue price of Rs 274 per share.

    RBL Bank: According to CNBC TV reports, ace investors Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and D-Mart’s founder RK Damani have approached the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to buy a 10 per cent stake in RBL Bank.

    Financials: Corporate houses, which are not allowed to own a bank, can now pick up 15 per cent stake in commercial banks through their non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). This is because the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has allowed non-promoters to hold up to 15 per cent in private sector banks, following the recommendation of an internal working group (IWG) that was set up to review the existing guidelines on ownership and corporate structure for these entities.

    M&M, Tata Motors: Riding on the success of their recent model launches, homegrown auto majors Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors are looking to further strengthen their product portfolios in 2022. Both companies are also looking at ways to handle the semiconductor shortage in a better way next year so that the impact on the production is minimal.

    Lupin: Homegrown pharmaceuticals major said it has received tentative approval from the US health regulator for its generic Azilsartan Medoxomil tablets used to treat high blood pressure.

    Central Bank of India (CBI): The last remaining public sector lender under the Reserve Bank of India’s prompt corrective action (PCA) framework, may see such restrictions being lifted in 2-3 months. Central Bank of India meets all the parameters for exiting the PCA framework and the RBI will remove it from PCA as soon as the end of this fiscal year, said an official.

    Canara Bank: The state-run bank has raised Rs 2,500 crore by issuing Basel-III compliant bonds to a total of 10 allottees.

    Kabra ExtrusionTechnik: The company has approved capex plan of Rs 100 crore for its battery division.

    Orchid Pharma: The company informed BSE, that CARE had revised its ratings on long-term and short-term bank facilities from CARE BBB -; Stable CARE A3 to CARE BBB- (CWD) and CARE A3 (CWD, respectively. The ratings agency has placed it on Credit Watch with developing implications.

    Stocks in F&O ban: Escorts, Indiabulls Housing Finance and Vodafone Idea are the only stocks in the F&O ban period today.

  • Market LIVE Updates: Indices at day’s high led by IT, realty, banks; RBL Bank most active

    Active pharmaceutical ingredients manufacturer Supriya Lifescience, the 64th listing in 2021, is expected to debut with around 50 percent premium on December 28.

    Experts cited attractive valuations, strong financial track record with maximum income from exports, increasing growth potential in the pharma space and healthy return ratios for the expectations of the healthy listing.

    The initial public offering of Supriya Lifescience received a stellar response from investors, as the issue was subscribed 71.51 times during December 16-20.

    The allotted quota of non-institutional investors was subscribed 161.22 times, followed by retail investors’ 56.01 times. Qualified institutional buyers also showed strong interest in the public issue, as the portion set aside for them was subscribed 31.83 times.

  • Capital investment to pick up in old economy; decent growth expected in FY23: Jayanth R Varma

    Varma, who is also a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank, in an interview to PTI said that inflation is a matter of concern, but as of now it is the persistence of inflation rather than its level that is a matter of concern.

    According to Varma, the pre-pandemic level of economic activity has already been surpassed, and the rest of this financial year should also see further recovery.

    He noted that calendar year 2021 saw dozens of new economy companies receive large funding both in private and public equity markets and these companies would have positive spillover effects into the rest of the economy as well.

    “I am hopeful that in a few quarters from now, capital investment would also begin to pick up even in the old economy,” the eminent economist said.

    India is contemplating bringing a bill in Parliament to deal with the challenges posed by the unregulated cryptocurrencies. Currently, there are no particular regulations or any ban on use of cryptocurrencies in the country.

    Asked about the impact of ‘taper tantrum’ or withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve on India, he said the Indian economy is a lot more resilient on the external front than it was in 2013.

    Varma opined that in any case, using the interest rate to achieve an exchange rate objective would be inconsistent with the inflation targeting framework that is in place today.

    The taper tantrum had started in mid-2013 when the Fed hinted at reversing its easy monetary policy.

  • Asia stocks, oil struggle as Omicron worries weigh

    TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian stock markets were generally weaker  in holiday-thinned trading on Monday, as uncertainty over the economic impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant weighed on investor sentiment.

    U.S. airlines have cancelled or delayed thousands of flights over the past three days due to COVID-19-related staff shortages, while several cruise ships had to cancel stops after outbreaks on-board.

    In Asia, China reported its highest daily rise in local COVID-19 cases in 21 months over the weekend as infections more than doubled in the northwestern city of Xian, the country’s latest COVID hot spot.

    Mainland Chinese shares, though, were mixed, with Shanghai’s benchmark sliding 0.37% but an index of blue chips edged 0.05% higher.

    Australia, Hong Kong and Britain are among markets closed Monday for holidays.

    “There is concern over the widening spread of the Omicron variant, which is overall making people cautious about taking stocks higher” in Japan, said a market participant at a Japanese securities firm.

    Wall Street trading resumes later in the global day following a holiday on Friday. U.S. stocks closed at records on Thursday amid signs Omicron may cause a milder level of illness, even as the highly transmissible strain led to a surge in case numbers around the world.

    In the foreign exchange markets, the U.S. dollar continued to languish near the bottom of its range of the past month against a basket of major peers, after hitting a 16-month high in November as Federal Reserve policymakers turned more hawkish.

    Thet flat at 96.116, towards the bottom of the range from 95.544 to the 16-month peak at 96.938 reached on Nov. 24.

    In the crude market, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 59 cents to $73.20 a barrel. The contract did not trade on Friday because of the U.S. market holiday.

  • India in talks with Taiwan for domestic semiconductor-manufacturing hub; trade, investment pacts also discussed

    India is in talks with Taiwan over the possibility of setting up a domestic semiconductor manufacturing hub, a report citing sources claimed on December 16. The two sides are also reportedly discussing agreements related to free trade and investments.

    Taiwan is home to two of the world’s biggest semiconductor giants–Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC).

    New Delhi and Taipei are exploring the possibility of bringing either of the two companies to set up a manufacturing plant in India learnt from two persons familiar to the development.

    The Indian side has also proposed a number of sites where the production plant could be set up, the persons said. They, however, noted that the process is “complicated”.

    “It is a very complicated process because a company like TSMC uses components from hundreds of other firms. Setting up a hub in India means convincing those firms to also set up a facility in India to ensure the supply of components,” the newspaper quoted one of the source as saying.

    If the talks end up being successful, this will be only the second instance when a Taiwanese semiconductor maker will launch a manufacturing unit in another country. Earlier, TSMC, which has a market value above $550 billion, had unveiled a $12-billion fabrication plant in the United States.

    Investment, free-trade pacts

    According to the report, India and Taiwan had set up four groups earlier this year to discuss an investment agreement and a free-trade agreement, apart from creating a domestic semiconductor-manufacturing hub and the training required for the purpose.

    The investment and free trade pacts, which Taiwan is discussing with a number of countries, are likely to be used by it to diplomatically counter China at a time when tensions between the two neighbours are on a rise.

    One of the groups set up by India and Taiwan met virtually earlier this year to discuss the free-trade agreement, Hindustan Times learnt from the sources. However, the group that is discussing semiconductor manufacturing has met twice in the same period, the report said.

    Semiconductor manufacturing key for India

    For India, semiconductor manufacturing is of utmost importance as the country’s requirement of electronic chips–essential in the production of an array of items ranging from cars to smartphones–is expected to meteorically shoot up over the next couple of years.

  • Explained: What to look at before investing in ESG funds

    Environment, social responsibility, and corporate governance have of late emerged as key themes for investors in India. The asset size of ESG funds has ballooned nearly five times to Rs 12,300 crore over the last couple of years. Earlier this week, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) launched NSE Prime, a framework that allows companies to submit to standards of corporate governance that are higher than those required by existing regulations.

    Market experts say investors in funds and companies would do well to keep the factors of environmental sustainability, social responsibility, and corporate governance in mind for long-term sustainability of investment returns. However, some are sceptical of the possibility of “greenwashing”, and of fund managers over-weighing certain stocks once other options are deemed non-compliant with ESG investment parameters.

    The expression is used synonymously with sustainable and socially responsible investing. While selecting a stock for investment, an ESG fund shortlists companies that score high on environment, social responsibility, and corporate governance, and then looks at financial factors. With the overall increase in awareness, and with regulations moving in this direction, investors are re-evaluating traditional approaches and considering the impact of their decisions on the planet.

    As ESG funds gain momentum in India, companies will be forced to improve governance and ethical practices, and act with greater social and environmental responsibility, fund managers say. As the policy framework changes, companies that do not alter business models or become more environmentally sustainable, could have their revenue and profits impacted in the long term, they say. Globally, many pension funds and sovereign wealth funds do not invest in companies that are seen as polluting or socially not responsible.

    One of these is the possibility of “greenwashing”, understood as an act of conveying a “false impression or providing misleading information about how a company’s products are more environmentally sound”.

    In an agenda note published on December 21 on ‘How to address sustainable investment backlash and improve ESG reporting’, the World Economic Forum noted that greenwashing is a top concern among global institutional investors, “cited by six in 10 respondents as an issue when selecting sustainable investments, according to a Schroders Institutional Investor study. It’s also been known to be a problem for retail investors, who especially struggle to decipher complex ESG investments”.

    Investment experts have also pointed to the tendency of fund managers to over-weigh certain stocks and companies in a situation where most large investment-friendly companies have fallen short of the qualitative and quantitative parameters used for ESG investing.

  • Amazon sues financial crime agency in latest twist of Indian battle

    Amazon.com Inc is taking India’s financial crime fighting agency to court, seeking to quash an investigation into one of its 2019 deals, a court filing seen by Reuters shows.India’s Enforcement Directorate (ED) has for months been probing Amazon’s $200 million investment in India’s Future Group for suspected violations of foreign investment laws.

    The investment is at the centre of protracted legal battles, as Amazon has used the terms of that deal – and cited contract breaches by Future – to stall the $3.4 billion sale of the Indian company’s retail assets to a rival.

    In an 816-page filing, seen by Reuters, Amazon calls the investigation a “fishing and roving” inquiry, saying the ED had sought privileged legal advice and opinions from Amazon and other information not connected to the Future Group deal.

    Multiple Amazon executives, including its India head, had been summoned by the ED in recent weeks and the investigation had caused “unnecessary harassment,” the U.S. e-commerce giant said in its filing to the Delhi High Court on Dec. 21.

    “The directions by the ED asking for disclosure of legally privileged documents and litigation privilege information is derogatory of the principles” laid out in Indian constitution, Amazon said in the filing, which is not public.

    “The investigation is a fishing and roving exercise.”

    Amazon and the ED, which does not make details of its investigations public, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The case will likely be heard on Thursday.

    The filing is the latest twist in the long-running dispute between Amazon and Future. Though India’s antitrust body suspended their 2019 deal last week, saying Amazon had suppressed information when seeking approvals for it, the ED’s probe is independent of that.

    The dispute centres around three commercial agreements signed between Future and Amazon entities, which a Singapore arbitration panel – also hearing the dispute – has said must be read together when reviewing the transaction.

    Future contends conflating the commercial agreements would effectively mean the deal violated Indian law.

    Amazon’s court filing contained a notice from the ED dated Feb. 19 which sought details of its investment in Future, including copies of agreements, bank account details and other related internal communication.

    It also showed the ED is conducting a far wider probe, and had sought details of big vendors on Amazon’s e-commerce website in India, including sales numbers for those that account for more than 5% of total sales on Amazon.in.

    The notice came after a February Reuters investigation which found Amazon helped a small number of sellers prosper on its Indian platform, giving them discounted fees and using them to bypass foreign investment laws.

    Amazon said at the time it was confident it complied with regulations and that it “does not give preferential treatment to any seller on its marketplace.”