victorybull

Author: Editor

  • US dollar clings to gains as bets on further Fed hikes firm

    The dollar fought for a footing in choppy trade on Thursday, with support from upbeat U.S. data and hawkish policymaker comments, while the prospect of higher energy prices helped exporters’ currencies and weighed on those of importers.

    The dollar rose 1% on the euro and 1.3% on sterling overnight and was trying to hold those gains in bumpy early trade in Asia. The euro has now made two unsuccessful attempts to regain parity this week and last bought $0.9916. Sterling’s rebound from record lows has paused just below $1.15.

    The U.S. services industry posted another month of expansion in September, data showed overnight, while labour market figures were solid and the trade deficit narrowed. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated policymakers’ focus on inflation fighting and dismissed market hopes for rate cuts in 2023.

    “I think that just reminded people that you might be a bit premature in trying to price in rate cuts in the U.S.,” said Westpac currency strategist Imre Speizer.”That pushed up rates and pushed up the U.S. dollar,” he said, as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive moves to rein in inflation sets the pace for central banks around the globe.

    “Its one trade for the whole world,” said Speizer. “No one currency’s interest rates are really able to go off and do their own thing independently.“

    Bond markets globally sold sharply. Interest rate futures imply more than 130 basis points of tightening ahead for the Fed before the middle of next year. [US/][GVD/EUR][GB/]

    The U.S. dollar index wobbled 0.06% lower to 110.86, off lows near 110 from earlier in the week, though some distance below last week’s 20-year high of 114.78.

    Sterling last bought $1.1367, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars each rose about 0.4%, taking the Aussie to $0.6518 and the kiwi to $0.5772. [AUD/]

    The yen, which has been held steady by the risk of further Japanese intervention, sat at 144.57 per dollar.

    The Saudi Arabia-led cartel of oil producers agreed to steep production cuts on Wednesday, lifting Brent crude futures to a three-week high of $93.99 a barrel. [O/R]

    “Higher energy prices would have a much more direct impact on the European region given the more direct relationship to their finances,” said NatWest Markets’ strategist Jan Nevruzi.

    Later on Thursday the European Central Bank releases minutes from last month’s policy meeting. Traders are also awaiting Friday’s U.S. labour market data to gauge how fast and far the Fed might be willing to lift interest rates.

  • US Dollar Clings To Gains As Bets On Further Fed Hikes Firm

    US Dollar Clings To Gains As Bets On Further Fed Hikes Firm

    THE Dollar Fought For A Footing In Choppy Trade On Thursday, With Support From Upbeat U.S. Data And Hawkish Policymaker Comments, While The Prospect Of Higher Energy Prices Helped Exporters’ Currencies And Weighed On Those Of Importers. The Dollar Rose 1% On The Euro And 1.3% On Sterling Overnight And Was Trying To Hold Those Gains In Bumpy Early Trade In Asia. The Euro Has Now Made Two UnsuccessfulAattempts To Regain Parity This Week And Last Bought $0.9916. Sterling’s Rebound From Record Lows Has Paused Just Below.





    The U.S. services industry posted another month of expansion in September, data showed overnight, while labour market figures were solid and the trade deficit narrowed. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated policymakers’ focus on inflation fighting and dismissed market hopes for rate cuts in 2023. I think that just reminded people that you might be a bit premature in trying to price in rate cuts in the U.S.,” said Westpac currency strategist That pushed up rates and pushed up the U.S. dollar,” he said, as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive moves to rein in inflation sets the pace for central banks around the globe.

    Its One Trade For The Whole World, Said No One Currency’s Interest Rates Are Really Able To GO Off And Do Their Own Thing Independently.

    Bond markets globally sold sharply. Interest rate futures imply more than 130 basis points of tightening ahead for the Fed before the middle of next year The U.S. dollar index wobbled 0.06% lower to 110.86, off lows near 110 from earlier in the week, though some distance below last week’s 20-year high of Sterling last bought $1.1367, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars each rose about 0.4%, taking the Aussie to $0.6518 and the kiwi to.



    The yen, which has been held steady by the risk of further Japanese intervention, sat at 144.57 per dollar.

    The Saudi Arabia-led cartel of oil producers agreed to steep production cuts on Wednesday, lifting Brent crude futures to a three-week high of $93.99 a barre Higher energy prices would have a much more direct impact on the European region given the more direct relationship to their finances,” said NatWest Markets’ strategist Jan Nevruzi Later on Thursday the European Central Bank releases minutes from last month’s policy meeting. Traders are also awaiting Friday’s U.S. labour market data to gauge how fast and far the Fed might be willing to lift interest rates.

  • Oil Prices Rise to Near $90 as OPEC Cut Looms

    Oil Prices Rise to Near $90 as OPEC Cut Looms

    Oil prices rose further on Tuesday as markets positioned for the biggest supply cut by OPEC since the 2020 COVID crisis, with weakness in the dollar also helping London-traded Brent oil futures the global benchmark, rose 0.6% to $89.28 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.2% to $83.82 a barrel. Both contracts jumped as much as $4 on Monday, amid reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are considering a production cut of up to 1 million barrels per day (BPD). 

    The move would be the cartel’s biggest supply cut since a similar move during the COVID-19 pandemic and comes after a drastic fall in oil prices this year. 

    The OPEC is set to Meet in Vienna on Wednesday  its first in-person meeting since 2020- where it will decide on trimming supply. Several members of the cartel have already warned that production will be cut to support prices, which are languishing near eight-month lows Oil prices fell sharply from a 14-year high this year as concerns over dwindling demand largely offset curbs to Russian supply from the Ukraine war. Rising interest rates, inflation, and signs of weakening global economic activity were the biggest weights on crude this year The United States’ depletion of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve also increased supply, bringing down prices ahead of the November midterm elections Strength in the dollar this year also weighed on crude, as the greenback reached 20-year highs. A stronger dollar makes commodity imports more expensive, as they are priced in the currency.

    But crude prices benefited from a recent dip in the Dollar , as markets bet that growing economic ructions will push the Fed into easing its pace of sharp interest rate hikes.

    Weak manufacturing readings from major economies on Monday furthered this notion, pushing the dollar lower and helping crude prices But weakening economic activity also bodes poorly for oil prices, given that demand will also be adversely affected Traders long on oil are now betting that a harsh European winter, OPEC cuts, and easing COVID-19 lockdowns in major importer China will help support crude in the fourth quarter  Oil bears expect that more hawkish signals from major central banks and more signs of weakening demand will pull crude lower. 

  • Gold Steadies Above $1,650 As Safe Haven Appeal Creeps Back in

    Gold Steadies Above $1,650 As Safe Haven Appeal Creeps Back in

    Gold prices steadied above a major support level on Monday as growing risks of an economic recession spurred some safe-haven demand for the yellow metal Prices also recovered marginally from a bruising September, where they dropped 3%. Bullion prices marked their worst quarter since March 2021 with a Spot rose 0.2% to $1,663.99 an ounce, while gold futures were flat around $1,672 an ounce by Prices of the yellow metal were steady even as on Friday showed inflationary pressures remained elevated and were likely to invite more rate hike pain from the Federal Reserve.




    But fears that more interest rate hikes could slow economic growth, coupled with a brewing financial crisis in Europe and the UK invited some safe haven buying into gold. Data on Monday also showed Japanese business sentiment  worsened in the third quarter.

    Bullion Prices Also Benefited From An Easing Dollar, Which Retreated From 20-Year Highs. The Dollar Index Was Largely Flat On Monday.

    Gold has fallen sharply from 2022 highs hit during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, as the opportunity cost of holding the metal grew in tandem with rising interest rates across the globe This trend is widely expected to weigh on bullion prices in the coming months, as several central banks hike rates even further to battle stubborn inflation. On that front, gold appears to have largely failed as an inflation hedge this year, trading down Still, prices of the yellow metal may see some short-term relief especially if the dollar weakens further.




    Among Industrial Metals, Copper Prices Fell Further On Monday As Negative Signals From Japan’s Manufacturing Sector Added To Concerns Ver Demand For The red Metal.

    Copper futures fell 0.2% to $3.3830, after falling sharply in September A survey by the Bank of Japan showed major manufacturers in the country grew less optimistic about their business prospects in the third quarter, which could signal weakening industrial trends in the world’s third-largest economy. The data also comes after Chinese PMI  readings last week showed that activity in the world’s second-largest economy remains under pressure Copper prices have plummeted this year as rising interest rates weighed on economic activity, severely denting demand for the industrial metal.

  • Oil Heads For Fourth Straight Monthly Loss as OPEC Meeting Looms

    Oil Heads For Fourth Straight Monthly Loss as OPEC Meeting Looms

    Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, but were set for a fourth straight month of losses amid growing concerns over weakening demand, with the focus now turning to a potential supply cut by the OPEC next week London-traded Brent oil futures, the global benchmark,  were flat at $87.50 a barrel by 21:55 ET (01:55 GMT), while U.S West Texas Intermediate curse futures rose 0.4% to $81.56 a barrel. Both contracts were set to lose about 9% in September Prices took mixed signals from Chinese manufacturing data on Friday. While the Official Government Reading showed that activity expanded in September, a Private survey showed that activity sank far more than expected Oil prices tumbled from annual highs this year amid growing concerns that rising interest rates will crimp economic activity, weighing on crude demand. Several major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, have adopted an extremely hawkish stance this year.




    The Fed’s rate hikes boosted the dollar, which dented crude demand by making imports more expensive. The U.S. government has also drawn steadily from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve this year, increasing supply.

    Fears of an economic meltdown in the UK, as the pound crashed to record lows, rattled crude markets. A swathe of weak economic readings from China, the U.S. and the Eurozone this month also battered crude prices with the prospect of more demand destruction.




    But the consistent crude losses have spurred speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will trim production when it Meet Next Week . Several members of the group have flagged potential measures to support prices Oil prices were set to end the week higher on that notion. WTI futures were up 3.4% this week, while Brent was set to add over 1%, with both contracts also breaking a four-week losing streak Weakness in the dollar, as investors locked in profits at 20-year highs, also benefited crude prices, as did data showing an unexpected decline in U.S. crude stockpiles Oil prices could potentially benefit from more tightening supply in the fourth quarter, particularly in light of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A harsher-than-expected European winter could also tighten supply by pushing up the use.

  • Govt hikes DA By 4% Under 7th Pay Commission; Details Here

    Govt hikes DA By 4% Under 7th Pay Commission; Details Here

    The Union Cabinet has hiked the  Dearness Allowance (DA) of central government employees and pensioners by 4 percent under the 7th Pay Commission The hike takes DA to 38 percent from the current 34 percent of basic pay/pension. The Finance Ministry said that the central government employees and pensioners will become entitled to a higher amount of Dearness Allowance (DA) and Dearness Relief (DR), respectively.

    Financial News



    Speaking at a press conference in New Delhi, the Union Minister added that the hike in salary and pension will benefit over 50 lakh government employees and about 62 lakh pensioners ahead of the festive season.  Meanwhile, Finance took to Twitter to add that the combined impact on the exchequer on account of both DA and DR (Dearness Relief) would be R s 12852.5 crore per annum.

     release additional instalment of Dearness Allowance (DA) to central govt employees & Dearness Relief (DR) to pensioners w.e.f.

    Further, the combined impart on the exchequer on account of both DA and DR will be Rs.8,568.36 crore in the financial year 2022-23 (i.e. for a period of 8 months from July, 2022 to Februar The Union Cabinet had in March approved to increase 3 per cent in dearness allowance (DA) under the 7th Pay Commission, thus taking the DA to 34 per cent of the basic income.



    Dearness Allowance (DA) is the cost-of-living adjustment allowance which the government pays to the employees of the public sector as well as pensioners of the same revised the formula to calculate the DA and DR for central government employees and pensioners Dearness Allowance Percentage  ((Average of All-India Consumer Price Index (Base Year 2001=100) for the past 12 months -115.76)/115.76)x100.For Central public sector employees: Dearness Allowance Percentage = ((Average of All-India Consumer Price Index (Base Year 2001=100) for the past 3 months.